Merge pull request #59 from Aignosi/feature/SIENTIAPDE-2191-adaptive-state

feat(simple_metrics): adaptive state on the pipelines doc (SIENTIAPDE-2191)

README.md

@@ -489,14 +489,16 @@ The **SimpleMetrics** workflow calculates regression metrics (RMSE, MSE, MAE, R
 1. **Data Loading**: Loads prediction vs target data via a JOIN query
 2. **Metrics Calculation**: Calculates configured regression metrics; alerts on `simple_metrics_thresholds` breaches (one alert per model, the message names the window) unless the window has fewer rows than `simple_metrics_min_samples`
 3. **Data Export**: Exports metrics to PostgreSQL
+4. **Adaptive State**: when the schedule's `pipelines` doc has `frequency_alert`, escalates `adaptive_state` on a breach and recovers after the window is renewed without one (`min(12, ceil(interval_minutes / frequency_alert))` runs, at least 1; empty, under-sampled or threshold-less windows count as healthy). The orchestrator runs the schedule at `frequency_alert` while escalated. Runs on every schedule (it reads the `pipelines` doc to check for `frequency_alert`), so a MongoDB failure here fails the run; the metrics are already exported by then
 
 #### Architecture Diagram
 ```mermaid
 flowchart LR
-    A[1. load_custom_query] --> B[2. calculate_simple_metrics] --> C[3. export_data_to_postgres]
+    A[1. load_custom_query] --> B[2. calculate_simple_metrics] --> C[3. export_data_to_postgres] --> D[4. update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state]
     
     A -.-> Database[(Database)]
     C -.-> PostgreSQL[(PostgreSQL)]
+    D -.-> MongoDB[(MongoDB pipelines)]
 ```
 
 #### Input Parameters
@@ -527,7 +529,7 @@ flowchart LR
 - PostgreSQL database
 - MLFlow server
 - MinIO object storage (for MLFlow artifacts)
-- MongoDB server (for notifications)
+- MongoDB server (notifications, prediction metadata, and read/write on the orchestrator's `pipelines` collection for the simple-metrics adaptive state)
 - OPC server(s) if using OPC export
 - PI Web API server if using PI Web API export
 
@@ -903,7 +905,7 @@ See [OPC UA Communication](#opc-ua-communication) for semantics, concurrency, an
 | `MONGODB_URL` | MongoDB connection URI | `localhost:27018` | Yes |
 | `MONGODB_USERNAME` | MongoDB username | `root` | Yes |
 | `MONGODB_PASSWORD` | MongoDB password | `wKZDbMNU1c` | Yes |
-| `MONGODB_DATABASE_NAME` | MongoDB database name | `sientia` | Yes |
+| `MONGODB_DATABASE_NAME` | MongoDB database name; must be the same database as the orchestrator's `pipelines` | `sientia` | Yes |
 | `MONGODB_TTL_INDEX_HOURS` | MongoDB TTL index hours | `1` | No |
 | `LOG_LEVEL` | Application log level | `INFO` | No |
 | `PROJECT_NAME` | Project name for metrics | `laborious` | No |

e2e/conftest.py

@@ -445,6 +445,7 @@ def _simple_metrics_worker_activity_list(test_activities: Activities):
         test_activities.load_custom_query,
         test_activities.calculate_simple_metrics,
         test_activities.export_data_to_postgres,
+        test_activities.update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state,
     ]
 
 

e2e/scenarios.md

@@ -413,6 +413,15 @@ four metrics with closed-form expected values.
 #### S.1.2 Subset metrics
 **Summary**: Requesting `metrics=['rmse']` writes only the rmse row.
 
+#### S.1.3 Threshold breach escalates the adaptive state
+**Summary**: With `simple_metrics_thresholds` breached and a `pipelines` doc
+(same `schedule_name`) carrying `frequency_alert`, the workflow sets
+`adaptive_state={escalated: true, healthy_streak: 0}` and stamps `updated_at`.
+
+**Expected Outcome**:
+- `adaptive_state` written on the `pipelines` doc.
+- `updated_at` is a BSON datetime (the orchestrator calls `.replace(tzinfo=UTC)` on it).
+
 ### 6.2 Edge cases
 
 #### S.2.1 Zero-variance target returns r2=0

e2e/test_simple_metrics.py

@@ -15,6 +15,7 @@ from decimal import Decimal
 
 import math
 import pytest
+from pymongo import MongoClient
 from sqlalchemy import text
 from temporalio.testing import WorkflowEnvironment
 from temporalio.worker import Worker
@@ -332,3 +333,54 @@ async def test_simple_metrics_no_overlapping_data_short_circuits(
             {'m': str(model_id)},
         ).scalar()
     assert count == 0, 'Empty target data must short-circuit and skip persistence'
+
+
+@pytest.mark.asyncio
+@pytest.mark.integration
+async def test_simple_metrics_breach_escalates_adaptive_state(
+    temporal_test_env: WorkflowEnvironment,
+    temporal_worker_simple_metrics: Worker,
+    test_activities: Activities,
+    postgres_engine,
+    mongo_container,
+):
+    """
+    Scenario S.1.3: a threshold breach on a schedule whose pipelines doc has
+    ``frequency_alert`` escalates ``adaptive_state`` and stamps ``updated_at``
+    as a BSON datetime (the type the orchestrator reads).
+    """
+    model_id = 541
+    schedule_name = 'test-simple-metrics-adaptive'
+    _seed_predictions_and_targets(
+        postgres_engine, model_id=model_id, pairs=[(1.0, 2.0), (2.0, 4.0), (3.0, 5.0)]
+    )
+
+    mongo = MongoClient(f'mongodb://localhost:{mongo_container.get_exposed_port(27017)}')
+    pipelines = mongo['test_db']['pipelines']
+    try:
+        pipelines.delete_many({'schedule_name': schedule_name})
+        pipelines.insert_one(
+            {'schedule_name': schedule_name, 'frequency': '1h', 'frequency_alert': '5m'}
+        )
+
+        input_data = _simple_metrics_input(
+            model_id,
+            schedule_name=schedule_name,
+            model_config={
+                'target': 'sensor_target',
+                'simple_metrics_thresholds': {'rmse_max': 0.01},
+            },
+        )
+        await start_and_await_workflow(
+            temporal_test_env.client,
+            SimpleMetrics.run,
+            input_data,
+            make_workflow_id('test-simple-metrics-adaptive'),
+        )
+
+        doc = pipelines.find_one({'schedule_name': schedule_name})
+    finally:
+        mongo.close()
+
+    assert doc['adaptive_state'] == {'escalated': True, 'healthy_streak': 0}
+    assert isinstance(doc['updated_at'], datetime)

laborious/activities/activities.py

@@ -16,22 +16,22 @@ with workflow.unsafe.imports_passed_through():
     from laborious.activities.gates import Gates
     from laborious.activities.mlflow import MLFlow
     from laborious.activities.model_metrics import ModelMetrics
+    from laborious.activities.mongo import MongoActivities
     from laborious.activities.opc import OPC
-    from laborious.activities.prediction_metadata import PredictionMetadata
     from laborious.activities.storage import Storage
     from laborious.utils.connectors_config import build_mlflow_config
 
 
-class Activities(Storage, MLFlow, Gates, OPC, ModelMetrics, API, PredictionMetadata):
+class Activities(Storage, MLFlow, Gates, OPC, ModelMetrics, API, MongoActivities):
     """
     Central orchestrator for all Temporal activities used by Laborious workflows.
 
     Composes Storage (Postgres + MinIO offload), MLFlow (wrapper-based inference and retrain
     via ``SientiaMLflowRepository``), Gates (data quality and ML response filters), OPC exports,
-    drift/simple metrics, PI Web API writes, and PredictionMetadata (the single write point for
+    drift/simple metrics, PI Web API writes, and MongoActivities (the single write point for
-    gate metadata — see `laborious.activities.prediction_metadata`). The worker constructs one
+    gate metadata and the simple metrics adaptive state — see `laborious.activities.mongo`).
-    ``Activities`` instance per process and registers its callables on multiple workers bound to
+    The worker constructs one ``Activities`` instance per process and registers its callables on
-    different task queues.
+    multiple workers bound to different task queues.
 
     MLflow connectivity: unless ``mlflow_repository`` is injected (tests only), this class builds
     ``SientiaMLflowRepository`` from ``build_mlflow_config()`` so tracking credentials and URL
@@ -73,7 +73,7 @@ class Activities(Storage, MLFlow, Gates, OPC, ModelMetrics, API, PredictionMetad
          - metrics_controller: Optional shared controller; if ``None``, a new one is created.
          - mlflow_repository: Optional ``SientiaMLflowRepository`` for unit/e2e tests; in production
            leave unset so the repository is built from environment via ``build_mlflow_config()``.
-         - mongo_repository: Optional ``MongoDBRepository`` (prediction metadata, best-effort) for
+         - mongo_repository: Optional ``MongoDBRepository`` (prediction metadata, adaptive state) for
            unit/e2e tests; in production leave unset so the repository is built from environment
            via ``build_mongodb_config()``, same pattern as ``mlflow_repository`` above.
 
@@ -153,7 +153,7 @@ class Activities(Storage, MLFlow, Gates, OPC, ModelMetrics, API, PredictionMetad
             metrics_controller=mc,
         )
 
-        PredictionMetadata.__init__(
+        MongoActivities.__init__(
             self,
             mongo_repository=mongo_repository,
             logger=logger,
@@ -202,4 +202,4 @@ class Activities(Storage, MLFlow, Gates, OPC, ModelMetrics, API, PredictionMetad
         OPC.close(self)
         ModelMetrics.close(self)
         API.close(self)
-        PredictionMetadata.close(self)
+        MongoActivities.close(self)

laborious/activities/gates.py

@@ -219,7 +219,7 @@ class Gates(SientiaMonitoring):
         5. Handles errors gracefully with notification integration
         6. Builds a metadata document describing which filter(s) triggered, with their policy
            and a counter, whenever one does — this activity only computes it, it never writes it
-           (see `PredictionMetadata.write_prediction_metadata` for the actual write)
+           (see `MongoActivities.write_prediction_metadata` for the actual write)
 
         Args:
             input_data: Configuration and data for input validation

laborious/activities/model_metrics.py

@@ -4,6 +4,7 @@ with workflow.unsafe.imports_passed_through():
     import time
     import traceback
     import warnings
+    from math import ceil
     from typing import Any
 
     import pandas as pd
@@ -26,6 +27,73 @@ warnings.filterwarnings(
 )
 
 
+def threshold_breaches(
+    rows: list[dict[str, Any]], thresholds: dict[str, float] | None
+) -> list[str]:
+    """
+    Breach messages for metric rows outside their configured thresholds.
+
+    Convention: `<metric>_max` breaches when value > threshold, `<metric>_min` when value <
+    threshold. Shared by the breach alert and the adaptive-state rule so both agree on what a
+    breach is.
+    """
+    thresholds = thresholds or {}
+    breaches = []
+    for row in rows:
+        metric_name, value = row['metric'], row['value']
+        max_key, min_key = f'{metric_name}_max', f'{metric_name}_min'
+        if max_key in thresholds and value > thresholds[max_key]:
+            breaches.append(f'{metric_name}={value} exceeds {max_key}={thresholds[max_key]}')
+        elif min_key in thresholds and value < thresholds[min_key]:
+            breaches.append(f'{metric_name}={value} below {min_key}={thresholds[min_key]}')
+    return breaches
+
+
+_MAX_RECOVERY_RUNS = 12
+_FREQUENCY_UNIT_SECONDS = {'s': 1, 'm': 60, 'h': 3600, 'd': 86400}
+
+
+def frequency_to_seconds(frequency: str) -> int:
+    """`'5m'` -> 300. Same `'<int><s|m|h|d>'` format the orchestrator schedules with."""
+    # ponytail: copy of orchestrator/utils/converters.py:parse_frequency (no shared helper in
+    # sientia_do), same int() parsing so both repos accept the same strings, plus a > 0 guard;
+    # move it to sientia_do if a third repo needs it.
+    unit = _FREQUENCY_UNIT_SECONDS.get(frequency[-1:])
+    if unit is None:
+        raise ValueError(f'Invalid frequency: {frequency!r}')
+    value = int(frequency[:-1])
+    if value <= 0:
+        raise ValueError(f'Invalid frequency: {frequency!r}')
+    return value * unit
+
+
+def recovery_runs(interval_minutes: int, frequency_alert: str) -> int:
+    """
+    N of the hysteresis rule: healthy runs needed to renew the whole window without a breach,
+    capped at 12 (SIENTIAPDE-1995 decision 3).
+    """
+    runs = ceil(interval_minutes * 60 / frequency_to_seconds(frequency_alert))
+    return min(_MAX_RECOVERY_RUNS, max(1, runs))
+
+
+def next_adaptive_state(state: dict[str, Any], breached: bool, runs: int) -> dict[str, Any]:
+    """
+    Hysteresis rule of the adaptive frequency (SIENTIAPDE-1995): escalate on the first breach,
+    recover after `runs` consecutive non-breach runs.
+    """
+    if breached:
+        return {'escalated': True, 'healthy_streak': 0}
+    if not state.get('escalated'):
+        return {'escalated': False, 'healthy_streak': 0}
+    try:
+        streak = int(state.get('healthy_streak', 0)) + 1
+    except (TypeError, ValueError, OverflowError):
+        streak = 1  # hand-edited streak (null, text, inf): restart the count, stay escalated
+    if streak >= runs:
+        return {'escalated': False, 'healthy_streak': 0}
+    return {'escalated': True, 'healthy_streak': streak}
+
+
 class ModelMetrics(SientiaMonitoring):
     """
     Metrics and statistical analysis activities for the Laborious pipeline.
@@ -430,37 +498,21 @@ class ModelMetrics(SientiaMonitoring):
         self._debug_dataframe(f'Simple metrics dataframe: Size {data.shape}', data, metadata)
 
         # Threshold alerting (optional — no crash when absent)
-        thresholds = input_data.get('thresholds')
+        for breach_msg in threshold_breaches(output_data, input_data.get('thresholds')):
-        if thresholds:
+            message = (
-            # Convention: _max thresholds breach when value > threshold,
+                f'Threshold breach for model {model_id} '
-            #             _min thresholds breach when value < threshold.
+                f'(window {interval_minutes} min): {breach_msg}'
-            for row in output_data:
+            )
-                metric_name = row['metric']
+            self.warning(message, metadata)
-                value = row['value']
+            self.send_notification(
-                max_key = f'{metric_name}_max'
+                # Model-level trigger: the orchestrator dedups alerts on
-                min_key = f'{metric_name}_min'
+                # `<trigger>:<notification_id>`, so one breach seen by several windows
-
+                # (one schedule each) becomes one alert (SIENTIAPDE-1995).
-                breach_msg = None
+                metadata={**metadata, 'schedule_name': f'{model_id}-simple_metrics'},
-                if max_key in thresholds and value > thresholds[max_key]:
+                notification_id='SIMPLE_METRICS_THRESHOLD_BREACH',
-                    breach_msg = f'{metric_name}={value} exceeds {max_key}={thresholds[max_key]}'
+                message=message,
-                elif min_key in thresholds and value < thresholds[min_key]:
+                block='model_metrics',
-                    breach_msg = f'{metric_name}={value} below {min_key}={thresholds[min_key]}'
+                level=NotificationLevel.WARNING,
-
+            )
-                if breach_msg:
-                    message = (
-                        f'Threshold breach for model {model_id} '
-                        f'(window {interval_minutes} min): {breach_msg}'
-                    )
-                    self.warning(message, metadata)
-                    self.send_notification(
-                        # Model-level trigger: the orchestrator dedups alerts on
-                        # `<trigger>:<notification_id>`, so one breach seen by several windows
-                        # (one schedule each) becomes one alert (SIENTIAPDE-1995).
-                        metadata={**metadata, 'schedule_name': f'{model_id}-simple_metrics'},
-                        notification_id='SIMPLE_METRICS_THRESHOLD_BREACH',
-                        message=message,
-                        block='model_metrics',
-                        level=NotificationLevel.WARNING,
-                    )
 
         return data.to_dict(orient='records')

laborious/activities/mongo.py

@@ -0,0 +1,227 @@
+from temporalio import activity, workflow
+
+with workflow.unsafe.imports_passed_through():
+    from typing import Any
+
+    from bson import ObjectId
+    from sientia_do.notifications.handlers import CoreNotificationHandler as NotificationHandler
+    from sientia_do.observability.logger import Logger
+    from sientia_do.observability.metrics_controller import MetricsController
+    from sientia_do.observability.sientia_monitoring import SientiaMonitoring
+    from sientia_do.repository.mongodb_repository_sync import MongoDBRepository
+    from sientia_do.temporal.constants import now
+
+    from laborious.activities.model_metrics import (
+        next_adaptive_state,
+        recovery_runs,
+        threshold_breaches,
+    )
+
+
+class MongoActivities(SientiaMonitoring):
+    """
+    Activities that read from or write to MongoDB, sharing one `MongoDBRepository`.
+
+    - `write_prediction_metadata`: centralized, best-effort writer for prediction gate metadata
+      (triggered filter, policy, counter). Gates only compute and return a metadata document;
+      they never write it themselves. Keeping the write here, instead of in each gate, puts the
+      one real write point in the subworkflow that's about to persist a `predictions` row — the
+      only place that reliably knows whether one is being written at all — and lets other
+      metadata sources reuse the same activity instead of duplicating write logic wherever they
+      originate.
+    - `update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state`: adaptive frequency state on the `pipelines` doc of
+      a simple metrics schedule (SIENTIAPDE-1995).
+    """
+
+    mongo_repository: MongoDBRepository | None = None
+    _PREDICTION_METADATA_COLLECTION = 'prediction_metadata'
+    _PIPELINES_COLLECTION = 'pipelines'
+
+    def __init__(
+        self,
+        mongo_repository: MongoDBRepository | None = None,
+        logger: Logger | None = None,
+        notification_handler: NotificationHandler | None = None,
+        metrics_controller: MetricsController | None = None,
+    ):
+        """
+        Initialize the Mongo activities.
+
+        Args:
+            mongo_repository: MongoDB, where gate metadata (triggered filter, policy, counter) is
+                written best-effort and the simple metrics adaptive state is kept. `None` is a
+                valid state: both activities become no-ops.
+
+        Raises:
+            Exception: If BaseActivity initialization fails
+        """
+        self.mongo_repository = mongo_repository
+        SientiaMonitoring.__init__(
+            self,
+            logger=logger,
+            notification_handler=notification_handler,
+            metrics_controller=metrics_controller,
+        )
+
+    def close(self) -> None:
+        """
+        Close the Mongo repository and clean up resources.
+        """
+        if self.mongo_repository is not None:
+            try:
+                self.mongo_repository.close()
+            finally:
+                self.mongo_repository = None
+        SientiaMonitoring.shutdown(self)
+
+    def __del__(self):
+        self.close()
+
+    @activity.defn(name='write_prediction_metadata')
+    def write_prediction_metadata(self, input_data: dict[str, Any]) -> str | None:
+        """
+        Best-effort write of one or more gate metadata documents to Mongo, combined into a single
+        `prediction_metadata` document.
+
+        Implements both business rules for this feature in one place:
+        - The prediction write must never be blocked or failed by a metadata write. A failed
+          `insert(...)` is swallowed, never re-raised, logged here with call-site context (which
+          `mongo_repository.insert(...)` itself can't know) — matching how `storage.py`'s
+          `cleanup_minio_objects_expired` also logs again at the call site even though the
+          repository already logs internally and emits its own Prometheus metric
+          (`MONGODB_WRITE_ERROR_COUNT`); the generic library log is for the metric/trace, this
+          one is for whoever is reading logs for this specific call.
+        - Nothing is written when there's nothing relevant to report. An empty/missing
+          `documents` list (or one full of falsy/empty entries) skips Mongo entirely, so callers
+          can call this unconditionally and get `None` back for "no metadata this time" instead
+          of deciding upfront whether there's something worth saving.
+
+        Takes a *list* of documents, not a single one: each caller contributes its own document
+        (shaped like `{'filters': [...]}`), and this flattens every `filters` entry across all of
+        them into one `prediction_metadata` document before the single insert. Today only one
+        gate ever contributes a document per prediction cycle (the gate chain short-circuits on
+        the first non-`None` `path_flag`), but the list shape means this activity won't need to
+        change again once more than one source contributes metadata for the same cycle.
+
+        `insert(...)` doesn't hand back the inserted document's `_id`, so it is generated here,
+        client-side, before the insert, as a plain string (not a BSON ObjectId) — matching this
+        codebase's convention of string `_id`s (e.g. the `models` collection) and the 24-hex-char
+        size of the `predictions.metadata_id` Postgres column that will reference it.
+
+        Args:
+            input_data: Dict with:
+                - documents (list[dict[str, Any]]): Metadata payloads to combine, each shaped
+                  like `{'filters': [...]}`. Missing/empty, or entries with no `filters`, skip
+                  the write entirely.
+                - metadata (dict): Workflow metadata for contextual logging.
+
+        Return:
+            The generated id, or `None` when there's nothing to write, Mongo isn't configured, or
+            the insert failed.
+        """
+        metadata = input_data['metadata']
+        documents = input_data.get('documents') or []
+
+        filters = [
+            entry for document in documents if document for entry in document.get('filters', [])
+        ]
+
+        if not filters or self.mongo_repository is None:
+            return None
+
+        generated_id = str(ObjectId())
+
+        try:
+            self.mongo_repository.insert(
+                self._PREDICTION_METADATA_COLLECTION,
+                {'filters': filters, '_id': generated_id},
+                metadata,
+            )
+        except Exception as e:
+            self.error(f'Failed to write prediction metadata: {e}', metadata)
+            return None
+
+        return generated_id
+
+    @activity.defn(name='update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state')
+    def update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state(self, input_data: dict[str, Any]) -> dict | None:
+        """
+        Update the adaptive frequency state on the schedule's `pipelines` doc.
+
+        The orchestrator derives the schedule frequency from `adaptive_state.escalated` and
+        `frequency_alert`. State is read from Mongo, not from the workflow input, because the
+        input only refreshes on the orchestrator tick and would be stale while escalated.
+        `updated_at` is bumped only when `escalated` flips: that is what makes the orchestrator
+        rewrite the schedule, and a streak change alone does not change the frequency.
+
+        Args:
+            input_data: Dict with:
+                - metadata (dict): Workflow metadata; `schedule_name` identifies the doc.
+                - simple_metrics (list[dict]): Rows from `calculate_simple_metrics`; empty for an
+                  empty or under-sampled window, which counts as a non-breach run.
+                - thresholds (dict): `simple_metrics_thresholds` from `model_config` (may be None: no breach).
+                - interval_minutes (int): Window size, used to compute the recovery runs.
+
+        Return:
+            The new state, or `None` when adaptive mode is off, Mongo is not configured, the doc
+            is missing or `frequency_alert` is invalid.
+
+        Raises:
+            Exception: Mongo read/write failures, so the workflow run fails explicitly.
+        """
+        metadata = input_data['metadata']
+        if self.mongo_repository is None:
+            return None
+
+        # Mongo errors propagate on purpose: the run must fail explicitly so the problem shows
+        # up in the Temporal metrics (PR #59 review). Metrics were already exported by then.
+        query = {'schedule_name': metadata['schedule_name']}
+        pipeline = self.mongo_repository.find_one(self._PIPELINES_COLLECTION, query, metadata)
+        if not pipeline:
+            # Likely misconfig: MONGODB_DATABASE_NAME differs from the orchestrator's, or the
+            # schedule_name does not match its doc.
+            self.warning(
+                f'No pipelines doc for schedule {metadata["schedule_name"]}: '
+                'adaptive state skipped',
+                metadata,
+            )
+            return None
+        frequency_alert = pipeline.get('frequency_alert')
+        if not frequency_alert:
+            return None
+
+        try:
+            runs = recovery_runs(input_data['interval_minutes'], str(frequency_alert))
+        except (TypeError, ValueError):
+            # Config error, not a failure: the orchestrator ignores an invalid `frequency_alert`
+            # too (keeps `frequency`) and already sends SIMPLE_METRICS_FREQUENCY_ALERT_BELOW_FLOOR
+            # for it. `interval_minutes` is untyped Mongo config as well (e.g. "60" or null).
+            self.warning(
+                f'Invalid frequency_alert={frequency_alert!r} or '
+                f'interval_minutes={input_data["interval_minutes"]!r}: adaptive state skipped',
+                metadata,
+            )
+            return None
+
+        breached = bool(
+            threshold_breaches(input_data['simple_metrics'], input_data.get('thresholds'))
+        )
+        state = pipeline.get('adaptive_state')
+        if not isinstance(state, dict):
+            # Missing or hand-edited garbage: not escalated, same as the orchestrator reads it.
+            state = {'escalated': False, 'healthy_streak': 0}
+        new_state = next_adaptive_state(state, breached, runs)
+        if new_state == state:
+            return new_state
+
+        update: dict[str, Any] = {'adaptive_state': new_state}
+        if new_state['escalated'] != bool(state.get('escalated')):
+            # BSON datetime, never a string: the orchestrator normalizes `updated_at` with
+            # `.replace(tzinfo=UTC).strftime(...)` and a string would fail its whole tick.
+            update['updated_at'] = now()
+        self.mongo_repository.update_one(
+            self._PIPELINES_COLLECTION, query, {'$set': update}, metadata
+        )
+
+        self.info(f'Adaptive state of {query["schedule_name"]}: {state} -> {new_state}', metadata)
+        return new_state

laborious/activities/prediction_metadata.py

@@ -1,132 +0,0 @@
-from temporalio import activity, workflow
-
-with workflow.unsafe.imports_passed_through():
-    from typing import Any
-
-    from bson import ObjectId
-    from sientia_do.notifications.handlers import CoreNotificationHandler as NotificationHandler
-    from sientia_do.observability.logger import Logger
-    from sientia_do.observability.metrics_controller import MetricsController
-    from sientia_do.observability.sientia_monitoring import SientiaMonitoring
-    from sientia_do.repository.mongodb_repository_sync import MongoDBRepository
-
-
-class PredictionMetadata(SientiaMonitoring):
-    """
-    Centralized, best-effort writer for prediction gate metadata (triggered filter, policy,
-    counter) to MongoDB.
-
-    Gates only compute and return a metadata document; they never write it themselves. Keeping
-    the write here, instead of in each gate, puts the one real write point in the subworkflow
-    that's about to persist a `predictions` row — the only place that reliably knows whether one
-    is being written at all — and lets other metadata sources reuse the same activity instead of
-    duplicating write logic wherever they originate.
-    """
-
-    mongo_repository: MongoDBRepository | None = None
-    _PREDICTION_METADATA_COLLECTION = 'prediction_metadata'
-
-    def __init__(
-        self,
-        mongo_repository: MongoDBRepository | None = None,
-        logger: Logger | None = None,
-        notification_handler: NotificationHandler | None = None,
-        metrics_controller: MetricsController | None = None,
-    ):
-        """
-        Initialize the prediction metadata writer.
-
-        Args:
-            mongo_repository: MongoDB, where gate metadata (triggered filter, policy, counter) is
-                written best-effort. `None` is a valid state (see `write_prediction_metadata`).
-
-        Raises:
-            Exception: If BaseActivity initialization fails
-        """
-        self.mongo_repository = mongo_repository
-        SientiaMonitoring.__init__(
-            self,
-            logger=logger,
-            notification_handler=notification_handler,
-            metrics_controller=metrics_controller,
-        )
-
-    def close(self) -> None:
-        """
-        Close the prediction metadata writer and clean up resources.
-        """
-        if self.mongo_repository is not None:
-            try:
-                self.mongo_repository.close()
-            finally:
-                self.mongo_repository = None
-        SientiaMonitoring.shutdown(self)
-
-    def __del__(self):
-        self.close()
-
-    @activity.defn(name='write_prediction_metadata')
-    def write_prediction_metadata(self, input_data: dict[str, Any]) -> str | None:
-        """
-        Best-effort write of one or more gate metadata documents to Mongo, combined into a single
-        `prediction_metadata` document.
-
-        Implements both business rules for this feature in one place:
-        - The prediction write must never be blocked or failed by a metadata write. A failed
-          `insert(...)` is swallowed, never re-raised, logged here with call-site context (which
-          `mongo_repository.insert(...)` itself can't know) — matching how `storage.py`'s
-          `cleanup_minio_objects_expired` also logs again at the call site even though the
-          repository already logs internally and emits its own Prometheus metric
-          (`MONGODB_WRITE_ERROR_COUNT`); the generic library log is for the metric/trace, this
-          one is for whoever is reading logs for this specific call.
-        - Nothing is written when there's nothing relevant to report. An empty/missing
-          `documents` list (or one full of falsy/empty entries) skips Mongo entirely, so callers
-          can call this unconditionally and get `None` back for "no metadata this time" instead
-          of deciding upfront whether there's something worth saving.
-
-        Takes a *list* of documents, not a single one: each caller contributes its own document
-        (shaped like `{'filters': [...]}`), and this flattens every `filters` entry across all of
-        them into one `prediction_metadata` document before the single insert. Today only one
-        gate ever contributes a document per prediction cycle (the gate chain short-circuits on
-        the first non-`None` `path_flag`), but the list shape means this activity won't need to
-        change again once more than one source contributes metadata for the same cycle.
-
-        `insert(...)` doesn't hand back the inserted document's `_id`, so it is generated here,
-        client-side, before the insert, as a plain string (not a BSON ObjectId) — matching this
-        codebase's convention of string `_id`s (e.g. the `models` collection) and the 24-hex-char
-        size of the `predictions.metadata_id` Postgres column that will reference it.
-
-        Args:
-            input_data: Dict with:
-                - documents (list[dict[str, Any]]): Metadata payloads to combine, each shaped
-                  like `{'filters': [...]}`. Missing/empty, or entries with no `filters`, skip
-                  the write entirely.
-                - metadata (dict): Workflow metadata for contextual logging.
-
-        Return:
-            The generated id, or `None` when there's nothing to write, Mongo isn't configured, or
-            the insert failed.
-        """
-        metadata = input_data['metadata']
-        documents = input_data.get('documents') or []
-
-        filters = [
-            entry for document in documents if document for entry in document.get('filters', [])
-        ]
-
-        if not filters or self.mongo_repository is None:
-            return None
-
-        generated_id = str(ObjectId())
-
-        try:
-            self.mongo_repository.insert(
-                self._PREDICTION_METADATA_COLLECTION,
-                {'filters': filters, '_id': generated_id},
-                metadata,
-            )
-        except Exception as e:
-            self.error(f'Failed to write prediction metadata: {e}', metadata)
-            return None
-
-        return generated_id

laborious/activities/storage.py

@@ -184,7 +184,7 @@ class Storage(Postgres, SientiaMonitoring):
         REPEAT persists a new row (unlike STOP, which persists nothing), reusing the previous
         row's `prediction`/`response_time`/`prediction_status`/`prediction_confidence` values with
         a fresh `timestamp`/`created_at`. `metadata_id` references the `prediction_metadata`
-        document for this cycle, if any (see `PredictionMetadata.write_prediction_metadata`);
+        document for this cycle, if any (see `MongoActivities.write_prediction_metadata`);
         `None` is a valid value — the column is nullable.
 
         Args (query_items):

laborious/worker/worker.py

@@ -217,6 +217,7 @@ async def main():
                 activities.load_custom_query,
                 activities.calculate_simple_metrics,
                 activities.export_data_to_postgres,
+                activities.update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state,
             ],
             logger=logger,
             runtime='core',

laborious/workflows/simple_metrics.py

@@ -71,48 +71,63 @@ class SimpleMetrics:
             start_to_close_timeout=timedelta(seconds=300),
         )
 
-        if not target_data:
-            return
-
         # Too few rows for a reliable value: metrics are still persisted, but a noisy short
-        # window must not alert (SIENTIAPDE-1995).
+        # window must neither alert nor escalate (SIENTIAPDE-1995).
-        enough_samples = not min_samples or len(target_data) >= min_samples
+        enough_samples = bool(target_data) and (not min_samples or len(target_data) >= min_samples)
-        if not enough_samples:
+        if target_data and not enough_samples:
             workflow.logger.info(
                 f'{len(target_data)} rows < simple_metrics_min_samples={min_samples}: '
-                'threshold alerting skipped'
+                'threshold alerting and escalation skipped'
             )
 
-        simple_metrics = await workflow.execute_local_activity_method(
+        simple_metrics = None
-            Activities.calculate_simple_metrics,
+        if target_data:
-            {
+            simple_metrics = await workflow.execute_local_activity_method(
-                **metadata,
+                Activities.calculate_simple_metrics,
-                'model_id': model_id,
+                {
-                'target_data': target_data,
+                    **metadata,
-                'metrics': input_data.get('metrics', ['rmse', 'mse', 'mae', 'r2']),
+                    'model_id': model_id,
-                'interval_minutes': interval_minutes,
+                    'target_data': target_data,
-                'model_type': model_type,
+                    'metrics': input_data.get('metrics', ['rmse', 'mse', 'mae', 'r2']),
-                'thresholds': thresholds if enough_samples else None,
+                    'interval_minutes': interval_minutes,
-            },
+                    'model_type': model_type,
-            retry_policy=retry_policy,
+                    'thresholds': thresholds if enough_samples else None,
-            start_to_close_timeout=timedelta(seconds=300),
-        )
-
-        if not simple_metrics:
-            return
-
-        await workflow.execute_activity_method(
-            Activities.export_data_to_postgres,
-            {
-                **metadata,
-                'data': simple_metrics,
-                'schema': input_data['schema'],
-                'table_name': input_data['target_table_name'],
-                'timestamp_conversion': {
-                    'column': 'timestamp',
-                    'format': DATETIME_FORMAT_WITH_TZ,
                 },
+                retry_policy=retry_policy,
+                start_to_close_timeout=timedelta(seconds=300),
+            )
+
+        if simple_metrics:
+            await workflow.execute_activity_method(
+                Activities.export_data_to_postgres,
+                {
+                    **metadata,
+                    'data': simple_metrics,
+                    'schema': input_data['schema'],
+                    'table_name': input_data['target_table_name'],
+                    'timestamp_conversion': {
+                        'column': 'timestamp',
+                        'format': DATETIME_FORMAT_WITH_TZ,
+                    },
+                },
+                retry_policy=retry_policy,
+                start_to_close_timeout=timedelta(seconds=300),
+            )
+
+        # No try/except: a failure here must fail the run so it shows up in the Temporal metrics
+        # (metrics are already persisted above).
+        await workflow.execute_activity_method(
+            Activities.update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state,
+            {
+                **metadata,
+                # Only a valid breach escalates: an empty or under-sampled window is sent as no
+                # rows, which counts as a healthy run (spec decision 8). Always called, even
+                # without thresholds (no breach), so an escalated doc recovers after they are
+                # removed.
+                'simple_metrics': (simple_metrics or []) if enough_samples else [],
+                'thresholds': thresholds,
+                'interval_minutes': interval_minutes,
             },
             retry_policy=retry_policy,
-            start_to_close_timeout=timedelta(seconds=300),
+            start_to_close_timeout=timedelta(minutes=1),
         )

laborious/workflows/sub_workflows/prediction_process.py

@@ -267,7 +267,7 @@ class PredictionProcess:
 
         Return:
             The generated id, or `None` when there's nothing to write, including when the
-            activity call itself fails (see `PredictionMetadata.write_prediction_metadata`).
+            activity call itself fails (see `MongoActivities.write_prediction_metadata`).
         """
         if not document:
             # Skip the remote activity call entirely rather than dispatching it just to have

tests/laborious/activities/test_activities.py

@@ -5,8 +5,8 @@ from laborious.activities.api import API
 from laborious.activities.gates import Gates
 from laborious.activities.mlflow import MLFlow
 from laborious.activities.model_metrics import ModelMetrics
+from laborious.activities.mongo import MongoActivities
 from laborious.activities.opc import OPC
-from laborious.activities.prediction_metadata import PredictionMetadata
 from laborious.activities.storage import Storage
 
 
@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ from laborious.activities.storage import Storage
 @patch('laborious.activities.activities.MLFlow.__init__')
 @patch('laborious.activities.activities.OPC.__init__')
 @patch('laborious.activities.activities.Gates.__init__')
-@patch('laborious.activities.activities.PredictionMetadata.__init__')
+@patch('laborious.activities.activities.MongoActivities.__init__')
 @patch('laborious.activities.activities.ModelMetrics.__init__')
 @patch('laborious.activities.activities.API.__init__')
 @patch('laborious.activities.activities.MinioRepository')
@@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ def test___init__(
     mock_minio_repository,
     mock_api_init,
     mock_model_metrics_init,
-    mock_prediction_metadata_init,
+    mock_mongo_activities_init,
     mock_gates_init,
     mock_opc_init,
     mock_mlflow_init,
@@ -87,7 +87,7 @@ def test___init__(
     assert isinstance(activities, Gates)
     assert isinstance(activities, ModelMetrics)
     assert isinstance(activities, API)
-    assert isinstance(activities, PredictionMetadata)
+    assert isinstance(activities, MongoActivities)
 
     mock_storage_init.assert_called_once_with(
         ANY,
@@ -131,7 +131,7 @@ def test___init__(
         metrics_controller=mock_metrics_controller.return_value,
     )
 
-    mock_prediction_metadata_init.assert_called_once_with(
+    mock_mongo_activities_init.assert_called_once_with(
         ANY,
         mongo_repository=mongo_repository,
         logger=logger,
@@ -172,7 +172,7 @@ def test___init__(
 @patch('laborious.activities.activities.MLFlow')
 @patch('laborious.activities.activities.OPC')
 @patch('laborious.activities.activities.Gates')
-@patch('laborious.activities.activities.PredictionMetadata')
+@patch('laborious.activities.activities.MongoActivities')
 @patch('laborious.activities.activities.ModelMetrics')
 @patch('laborious.activities.activities.API')
 @patch('laborious.activities.activities.MinioRepository')
@@ -180,7 +180,7 @@ def test_shutdown(
     _mock_minio_repository,
     mock_api_init,
     mock_model_metrics_init,
-    mock_prediction_metadata_init,
+    mock_mongo_activities_init,
     mock_gates_init,
     mock_opc_init,
     mock_mlflow_init,
@@ -243,7 +243,7 @@ def test_shutdown(
     mock_gates_init.close.assert_called_once()
     mock_model_metrics_init.close.assert_called_once()
     mock_api_init.close.assert_called_once()
-    mock_prediction_metadata_init.close.assert_called_once()
+    mock_mongo_activities_init.close.assert_called_once()
 
 
 @patch('laborious.activities.activities.SientiaMLflowRepository')
@@ -252,7 +252,7 @@ def test_shutdown(
 @patch('laborious.activities.activities.MLFlow.__init__')
 @patch('laborious.activities.activities.OPC.__init__')
 @patch('laborious.activities.activities.Gates.__init__')
-@patch('laborious.activities.activities.PredictionMetadata.__init__')
+@patch('laborious.activities.activities.MongoActivities.__init__')
 @patch('laborious.activities.activities.ModelMetrics.__init__')
 @patch('laborious.activities.activities.API.__init__')
 @patch('laborious.activities.activities.MinioRepository')
@@ -262,7 +262,7 @@ def test___init___builds_mlflow_repository_when_not_provided(
     mock_minio_repository,
     _mock_api_init,
     _mock_model_metrics_init,
-    _mock_prediction_metadata_init,
+    _mock_mongo_activities_init,
     _mock_gates_init,
     _mock_opc_init,
     _mock_mlflow_init,
@@ -326,7 +326,7 @@ def test___init___builds_mlflow_repository_when_not_provided(
 @patch('laborious.activities.activities.MLFlow.__init__')
 @patch('laborious.activities.activities.OPC.__init__')
 @patch('laborious.activities.activities.Gates.__init__')
-@patch('laborious.activities.activities.PredictionMetadata.__init__')
+@patch('laborious.activities.activities.MongoActivities.__init__')
 @patch('laborious.activities.activities.ModelMetrics.__init__')
 @patch('laborious.activities.activities.API.__init__')
 @patch('laborious.activities.activities.MinioRepository')
@@ -336,7 +336,7 @@ def test___init___builds_mongo_repository_when_not_provided(
     mock_minio_repository,
     _mock_api_init,
     _mock_model_metrics_init,
-    mock_prediction_metadata_init,
+    mock_mongo_activities_init,
     mock_gates_init,
     _mock_opc_init,
     _mock_mlflow_init,
@@ -398,9 +398,9 @@ def test___init___builds_mongo_repository_when_not_provided(
         notification_handler=notification_handler,
         metrics_controller=mock_metrics_controller.return_value,
     )
-    # The same repository built here is the one handed to PredictionMetadata, not a second
+    # The same repository built here is the one handed to MongoActivities, not a second
     # instance.
-    mock_prediction_metadata_init.assert_called_once_with(
+    mock_mongo_activities_init.assert_called_once_with(
         ANY,
         mongo_repository=mock_mongo_repository_cls.return_value,
         logger=logger,

tests/laborious/activities/test_gates.py

@@ -147,8 +147,8 @@ def test_input_gate_with_filter(gates_activity):
 
     # Assert: the gate only computes the document now — it never writes anywhere, and never
     # checks path_flag to decide whether to build one (that decision moved to the caller, see
-    # `PredictionMetadata.write_prediction_metadata` and `prediction_process.py`), so even a STOP
+    # `MongoActivities.write_prediction_metadata` and `prediction_process.py`), so even a
-    # resolution still gets its document built.
+    # STOP resolution still gets its document built.
     assert (path_flag, confidence, comment) == ('STOP', -1, 'Input data with bad quality')
     assert document == {'filters': [{'name': 'EMPTY_DATA', 'policy': 'STOP', 'counter': 0}]}
     gates_activity.debug.assert_called()

tests/laborious/activities/test_model_metrics.py

@@ -7,7 +7,13 @@ from sientia_do.observability.metrics_controller import MetricsController
 from sientia_do.temporal.constants import DATETIME_FORMAT_WITH_TZ
 from sientia_model.analytics.drift_analysis import DriftInsufficientDataError
 
-from laborious.activities.model_metrics import ModelMetrics
+from laborious.activities.model_metrics import (
+    ModelMetrics,
+    frequency_to_seconds,
+    next_adaptive_state,
+    recovery_runs,
+    threshold_breaches,
+)
 
 
 @fixture
@@ -1221,3 +1227,79 @@ def test_to_naive_utc_keeps_naive_timestamps():
 
     assert result.dt.tz is None
     assert result.tolist() == [Timestamp('2024-01-01 06:00:00')]
+
+
+@mark.parametrize(
+    'rows, thresholds, expected_count',
+    [
+        ([{'metric': 'rmse', 'value': 2.0}], {'rmse_max': 1.0}, 1),
+        ([{'metric': 'rmse', 'value': 0.5}], {'rmse_max': 1.0}, 0),
+        ([{'metric': 'r2', 'value': 0.5}], {'r2_min': 0.9}, 1),
+        ([{'metric': 'r2', 'value': 0.95}], {'r2_min': 0.9}, 0),
+        ([{'metric': 'rmse', 'value': 1.0}], {'rmse_max': 1.0}, 0),  # equal is not a breach
+        ([{'metric': 'r2', 'value': 0.9}], {'r2_min': 0.9}, 0),
+        ([{'metric': 'mae', 'value': 99.0}], {'rmse_max': 1.0}, 0),
+        ([{'metric': 'rmse', 'value': 99.0}], None, 0),
+        ([], {'rmse_max': 1.0}, 0),
+        (
+            [{'metric': 'rmse', 'value': 2.0}, {'metric': 'r2', 'value': 0.1}],
+            {'rmse_max': 1.0, 'r2_min': 0.9},
+            2,
+        ),
+    ],
+)
+def test_threshold_breaches(rows, thresholds, expected_count):
+    assert len(threshold_breaches(rows, thresholds)) == expected_count
+
+
+def _state(escalated: bool, streak: int) -> dict:
+    return {'escalated': escalated, 'healthy_streak': streak}
+
+
+@mark.parametrize(
+    'state, breached, runs, expected',
+    [
+        ({}, True, 3, _state(True, 0)),  # first breach escalates
+        ({}, False, 3, _state(False, 0)),  # missing state = healthy
+        (_state(False, 0), False, 3, _state(False, 0)),  # healthy stays healthy
+        (_state(True, 0), False, 3, _state(True, 1)),  # healthy run while escalated
+        (_state(True, 1), False, 3, _state(True, 2)),
+        (_state(True, 2), False, 3, _state(False, 0)),  # N-th healthy run recovers
+        (_state(True, 2), True, 3, _state(True, 0)),  # breach resets the streak
+        (_state(True, 0), False, 1, _state(False, 0)),  # N=1 recovers on first healthy run
+        (_state(True, None), False, 3, _state(True, 1)),  # hand-edited streak restarts
+        (_state(True, 'x'), False, 3, _state(True, 1)),
+        (_state(True, float('inf')), False, 3, _state(True, 1)),
+    ],
+)
+def test_next_adaptive_state(state, breached, runs, expected):
+    assert next_adaptive_state(state, breached, runs) == expected
+
+
+@mark.parametrize(
+    'frequency, seconds',
+    [('30s', 30), ('5m', 300), ('2h', 7200), ('1d', 86400)],
+)
+def test_frequency_to_seconds(frequency, seconds):
+    assert frequency_to_seconds(frequency) == seconds
+
+
+@mark.parametrize('frequency', ['', '5', 'm', '5x', 'abc', '0m'])
+def test_frequency_to_seconds_rejects_invalid(frequency):
+    with raises(ValueError):
+        frequency_to_seconds(frequency)
+
+
+@mark.parametrize(
+    'interval_minutes, frequency_alert, expected',
+    [
+        (60, '5m', 12),  # 60/5 = 12, at the cap
+        (60, '15m', 4),
+        (60, '7m', 9),  # ceil(8.57)
+        (60, '30s', 12),  # 120 capped at 12
+        (1440, '1h', 12),  # 24 capped at 12
+        (5, '1h', 1),  # window shorter than one run: at least 1
+    ],
+)
+def test_recovery_runs(interval_minutes, frequency_alert, expected):
+    assert recovery_runs(interval_minutes, frequency_alert) == expected

tests/laborious/activities/test_mongo.py

@@ -0,0 +1,357 @@
+from datetime import datetime
+from unittest.mock import MagicMock, call, patch
+
+from pytest import fixture, mark, raises
+from sientia_do.observability.metrics_controller import MetricsController
+from sientia_do.observability.sientia_monitoring import SientiaMonitoring
+
+from laborious.activities.mongo import MongoActivities
+
+
+@fixture
+def mongo() -> MagicMock:
+    return MagicMock()
+
+
+@fixture
+def prediction_metadata(mongo: MagicMock):
+    activity = MongoActivities(
+        mongo_repository=mongo,
+        logger=MagicMock(),
+        notification_handler=MagicMock(),
+        metrics_controller=MagicMock(spec=MetricsController),
+    )
+    activity.error = MagicMock()
+    return activity
+
+
+metadata = {
+    'metadata': {
+        'model_id': 'test_model',
+        'model_name': 'test_model',
+        'workflow_name': 'test_workflow',
+        'schema_name': 'test_schedule',
+    },
+}
+
+
+def test_write_prediction_metadata_no_documents_skips_mongo(prediction_metadata, mongo: MagicMock):
+    # Act
+    result = prediction_metadata.write_prediction_metadata({**metadata, 'documents': []})
+
+    # Assert
+    assert result is None
+    mongo.insert.assert_not_called()
+
+
+def test_write_prediction_metadata_missing_documents_key_skips_mongo(
+    prediction_metadata, mongo: MagicMock
+):
+    # Act
+    result = prediction_metadata.write_prediction_metadata({**metadata})
+
+    # Assert
+    assert result is None
+    mongo.insert.assert_not_called()
+
+
+def test_write_prediction_metadata_documents_with_no_filters_skips_mongo(
+    prediction_metadata, mongo: MagicMock
+):
+    # Arrange: a falsy document (None) and one with an empty `filters` list — neither contributes
+    # anything to write.
+    documents = [None, {'filters': []}]
+
+    # Act
+    result = prediction_metadata.write_prediction_metadata({**metadata, 'documents': documents})
+
+    # Assert
+    assert result is None
+    mongo.insert.assert_not_called()
+
+
+def test_write_prediction_metadata_not_configured_returns_none():
+    # Arrange
+    activity = MongoActivities(
+        mongo_repository=None,
+        logger=MagicMock(),
+        notification_handler=MagicMock(),
+        metrics_controller=MagicMock(spec=MetricsController),
+    )
+    activity.error = MagicMock()
+    document = {'filters': [{'name': 'EMPTY_DATA', 'policy': 'STOP', 'counter': 0}]}
+
+    # Act
+    result = activity.write_prediction_metadata({**metadata, 'documents': [document]})
+
+    # Assert
+    assert result is None
+    activity.error.assert_not_called()
+
+
+def test_write_prediction_metadata_success_generates_id_and_inserts(
+    prediction_metadata, mongo: MagicMock
+):
+    # Arrange
+    document = {'filters': [{'name': 'EMPTY_DATA', 'policy': 'STOP', 'counter': 3}]}
+
+    # Act
+    result = prediction_metadata.write_prediction_metadata({**metadata, 'documents': [document]})
+
+    # Assert: a plain 24-hex-char string id (matches predictions.metadata_id's varchar(24)),
+    # not a BSON ObjectId — `insert(...)` never hands one back, so it's generated client-side.
+    assert result is not None
+    assert len(result) == 24
+    int(result, 16)  # raises ValueError if not hex
+
+    collection, inserted_document, inserted_metadata = mongo.insert.call_args.args
+    assert collection == MongoActivities._PREDICTION_METADATA_COLLECTION
+    assert inserted_document == {'filters': document['filters'], '_id': result}
+    assert inserted_metadata == metadata['metadata']
+
+
+def test_write_prediction_metadata_combines_multiple_documents(
+    prediction_metadata, mongo: MagicMock
+):
+    # Arrange: two documents (e.g. from two different sources contributing metadata for the same
+    # prediction cycle) — their `filters` entries are flattened into one combined document.
+    documents = [
+        {'filters': [{'name': 'EMPTY_DATA', 'policy': 'CONTINUE', 'counter': 0}]},
+        {
+            'filters': [
+                {'name': 'SPECIFIC_VARIABLES_NULL_VALUES', 'policy': 'CONTINUE', 'counter': 2}
+            ]
+        },
+    ]
+
+    # Act
+    result = prediction_metadata.write_prediction_metadata({**metadata, 'documents': documents})
+
+    # Assert
+    assert result is not None
+    _, inserted_document, _ = mongo.insert.call_args.args
+    assert inserted_document['filters'] == [
+        {'name': 'EMPTY_DATA', 'policy': 'CONTINUE', 'counter': 0},
+        {'name': 'SPECIFIC_VARIABLES_NULL_VALUES', 'policy': 'CONTINUE', 'counter': 2},
+    ]
+
+
+def test_write_prediction_metadata_insert_failure_swallowed(prediction_metadata, mongo: MagicMock):
+    # Arrange
+    mongo.insert.side_effect = RuntimeError('connection reset')
+    document = {'filters': [{'name': 'EMPTY_DATA', 'policy': 'STOP', 'counter': 0}]}
+
+    # Act
+    result = prediction_metadata.write_prediction_metadata({**metadata, 'documents': [document]})
+
+    # Assert: the prediction write must never be blocked or failed by this
+    assert result is None
+    prediction_metadata.error.assert_called_once()
+
+
+@patch.object(SientiaMonitoring, 'shutdown')
+def test_close_disposes_mongo_repository(mock_shutdown):
+    """``MongoActivities.close`` should close the Mongo client and clear the reference."""
+    mongo = MagicMock()
+    activity = MongoActivities(
+        mongo_repository=mongo,
+        logger=MagicMock(),
+        notification_handler=MagicMock(),
+        metrics_controller=MagicMock(spec=MetricsController),
+    )
+    activity.close()
+    mongo.close.assert_called_once()
+    assert activity.mongo_repository is None
+    # Other instances collected by GC during the test also hit the patched shutdown.
+    assert mock_shutdown.call_args_list.count(call(activity)) == 1
+
+
+@patch.object(SientiaMonitoring, 'shutdown')
+def test_close_without_mongo_repository(mock_shutdown):
+    """When no Mongo repository is configured, ``close`` only shuts down monitoring."""
+    activity = MongoActivities(
+        mongo_repository=None,
+        logger=MagicMock(),
+        notification_handler=MagicMock(),
+        metrics_controller=MagicMock(spec=MetricsController),
+    )
+    activity.close()
+    # Other instances collected by GC during the test also hit the patched shutdown.
+    assert mock_shutdown.call_args_list.count(call(activity)) == 1
+
+
+_SM_METADATA = {**metadata['metadata'], 'schedule_name': 'm1-simple_metrics-60m'}
+_BREACH_INPUT = {
+    'metadata': _SM_METADATA,
+    'simple_metrics': [{'metric': 'rmse', 'value': 2.0}],
+    'thresholds': {'rmse_max': 1.0},
+    'interval_minutes': 60,
+}
+_HEALTHY_INPUT = {**_BREACH_INPUT, 'simple_metrics': [{'metric': 'rmse', 'value': 0.5}]}
+_EMPTY_INPUT = {**_BREACH_INPUT, 'simple_metrics': []}
+
+
+@fixture
+def mongo_activities(mongo: MagicMock):
+    activity = MongoActivities(
+        mongo_repository=mongo,
+        logger=MagicMock(),
+        notification_handler=MagicMock(),
+        metrics_controller=MagicMock(spec=MetricsController),
+    )
+    activity.info = MagicMock()
+    activity.warning = MagicMock()
+    return activity
+
+
+def _pipeline(**fields) -> dict:
+    return {'schedule_name': 'm1-simple_metrics-60m', 'frequency': '1h', **fields}
+
+
+def _set_of(mongo: MagicMock) -> dict:
+    collection, query, update, _metadata = mongo.update_one.call_args.args
+    assert collection == 'pipelines'
+    assert query == {'schedule_name': 'm1-simple_metrics-60m'}
+    return update['$set']
+
+
+def test_adaptive_state_no_mongo_is_noop():
+    activity = MongoActivities(
+        mongo_repository=None,
+        logger=MagicMock(),
+        notification_handler=MagicMock(),
+        metrics_controller=MagicMock(spec=MetricsController),
+    )
+    assert activity.update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state(_BREACH_INPUT) is None
+
+
+def test_adaptive_state_missing_pipeline_doc_is_noop(mongo_activities, mongo):
+    mongo.find_one.return_value = None
+    assert mongo_activities.update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state(_BREACH_INPUT) is None
+    mongo.update_one.assert_not_called()
+    # Likely misconfig (other MONGODB_DATABASE_NAME or schedule_name mismatch): not silent.
+    mongo_activities.warning.assert_called_once()
+    assert 'm1-simple_metrics-60m' in mongo_activities.warning.call_args.args[0]
+
+
+def test_adaptive_state_without_frequency_alert_is_noop(mongo_activities, mongo):
+    mongo.find_one.return_value = _pipeline()
+    assert mongo_activities.update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state(_BREACH_INPUT) is None
+    mongo.update_one.assert_not_called()
+    mongo_activities.warning.assert_not_called()
+
+
+def test_adaptive_state_breach_escalates_and_bumps_updated_at(mongo_activities, mongo):
+    mongo.find_one.return_value = _pipeline(frequency_alert='5m')
+
+    result = mongo_activities.update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state(_BREACH_INPUT)
+
+    assert result == {'escalated': True, 'healthy_streak': 0}
+    update = _set_of(mongo)
+    assert update['adaptive_state'] == {'escalated': True, 'healthy_streak': 0}
+    # BSON datetime, never a string: the orchestrator calls .replace(tzinfo=...) on it.
+    assert isinstance(update['updated_at'], datetime)
+    assert update['updated_at'].tzinfo is not None
+
+
+def test_adaptive_state_healthy_run_increments_streak_without_updated_at(mongo_activities, mongo):
+    # 60 min window / 5m = N 12, so one healthy run only moves the streak.
+    mongo.find_one.return_value = _pipeline(
+        frequency_alert='5m', adaptive_state={'escalated': True, 'healthy_streak': 0}
+    )
+
+    result = mongo_activities.update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state(_HEALTHY_INPUT)
+
+    assert result == {'escalated': True, 'healthy_streak': 1}
+    assert _set_of(mongo) == {'adaptive_state': {'escalated': True, 'healthy_streak': 1}}
+
+
+def test_adaptive_state_recovers_after_window_renewed(mongo_activities, mongo):
+    # 60 min window / 30m = N 2: second consecutive healthy run recovers.
+    mongo.find_one.return_value = _pipeline(
+        frequency_alert='30m', adaptive_state={'escalated': True, 'healthy_streak': 1}
+    )
+
+    result = mongo_activities.update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state(_HEALTHY_INPUT)
+
+    assert result == {'escalated': False, 'healthy_streak': 0}
+    update = _set_of(mongo)
+    assert update['adaptive_state'] == {'escalated': False, 'healthy_streak': 0}
+    assert isinstance(update['updated_at'], datetime)
+
+
+def test_adaptive_state_empty_window_counts_as_healthy_run(mongo_activities, mongo):
+    # Spec decision 8: an empty/under-sampled window never escalates but counts toward recovery.
+    mongo.find_one.return_value = _pipeline(
+        frequency_alert='5m', adaptive_state={'escalated': True, 'healthy_streak': 3}
+    )
+
+    result = mongo_activities.update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state(_EMPTY_INPUT)
+
+    assert result == {'escalated': True, 'healthy_streak': 4}
+
+
+def test_adaptive_state_empty_window_never_escalates(mongo_activities, mongo):
+    mongo.find_one.return_value = _pipeline(frequency_alert='5m')
+
+    result = mongo_activities.update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state(_EMPTY_INPUT)
+
+    assert result == {'escalated': False, 'healthy_streak': 0}
+    mongo.update_one.assert_not_called()
+
+
+def test_adaptive_state_unchanged_does_not_write(mongo_activities, mongo):
+    mongo.find_one.return_value = _pipeline(
+        frequency_alert='5m', adaptive_state={'escalated': False, 'healthy_streak': 0}
+    )
+
+    result = mongo_activities.update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state(_HEALTHY_INPUT)
+
+    assert result == {'escalated': False, 'healthy_streak': 0}
+    mongo.update_one.assert_not_called()
+
+
+@mark.parametrize('frequency_alert', ['5min', '0m', 5])
+def test_adaptive_state_invalid_frequency_alert_is_skipped(
+    mongo_activities, mongo, frequency_alert
+):
+    mongo.find_one.return_value = _pipeline(frequency_alert=frequency_alert)
+
+    assert mongo_activities.update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state(_BREACH_INPUT) is None
+    mongo.update_one.assert_not_called()
+    mongo_activities.warning.assert_called_once()
+
+
+@mark.parametrize('interval_minutes', ['60', None])
+def test_adaptive_state_invalid_interval_minutes_is_skipped(
+    mongo_activities, mongo, interval_minutes
+):
+    # Untyped Mongo config: "60" * 60 is a string, None * 60 a TypeError.
+    mongo.find_one.return_value = _pipeline(frequency_alert='5m')
+
+    result = mongo_activities.update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state(
+        {**_BREACH_INPUT, 'interval_minutes': interval_minutes}
+    )
+
+    assert result is None
+    mongo.update_one.assert_not_called()
+    mongo_activities.warning.assert_called_once()
+
+
+@mark.parametrize('adaptive_state', ['garbage', ['escalated']])
+def test_adaptive_state_malformed_state_is_not_escalated(mongo_activities, mongo, adaptive_state):
+    mongo.find_one.return_value = _pipeline(frequency_alert='5m', adaptive_state=adaptive_state)
+
+    result = mongo_activities.update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state(_BREACH_INPUT)
+
+    assert result == {'escalated': True, 'healthy_streak': 0}
+    mongo.update_one.assert_called_once()
+
+
+@mark.parametrize('failing_call', ['find_one', 'update_one'])
+def test_adaptive_state_mongo_error_propagates(mongo_activities, mongo, failing_call):
+    mongo.find_one.return_value = _pipeline(frequency_alert='5m')
+    getattr(mongo, failing_call).side_effect = RuntimeError('mongo down')
+
+    with raises(RuntimeError, match='mongo down'):
+        mongo_activities.update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state(_BREACH_INPUT)

tests/laborious/activities/test_prediction_metadata.py

@@ -1,179 +0,0 @@
-from unittest.mock import MagicMock, call, patch
-
-from pytest import fixture
-from sientia_do.observability.metrics_controller import MetricsController
-from sientia_do.observability.sientia_monitoring import SientiaMonitoring
-
-from laborious.activities.prediction_metadata import PredictionMetadata
-
-
-@fixture
-def mongo() -> MagicMock:
-    return MagicMock()
-
-
-@fixture
-def prediction_metadata(mongo: MagicMock):
-    activity = PredictionMetadata(
-        mongo_repository=mongo,
-        logger=MagicMock(),
-        notification_handler=MagicMock(),
-        metrics_controller=MagicMock(spec=MetricsController),
-    )
-    activity.error = MagicMock()
-    return activity
-
-
-metadata = {
-    'metadata': {
-        'model_id': 'test_model',
-        'model_name': 'test_model',
-        'workflow_name': 'test_workflow',
-        'schema_name': 'test_schedule',
-    },
-}
-
-
-def test_write_prediction_metadata_no_documents_skips_mongo(prediction_metadata, mongo: MagicMock):
-    # Act
-    result = prediction_metadata.write_prediction_metadata({**metadata, 'documents': []})
-
-    # Assert
-    assert result is None
-    mongo.insert.assert_not_called()
-
-
-def test_write_prediction_metadata_missing_documents_key_skips_mongo(
-    prediction_metadata, mongo: MagicMock
-):
-    # Act
-    result = prediction_metadata.write_prediction_metadata({**metadata})
-
-    # Assert
-    assert result is None
-    mongo.insert.assert_not_called()
-
-
-def test_write_prediction_metadata_documents_with_no_filters_skips_mongo(
-    prediction_metadata, mongo: MagicMock
-):
-    # Arrange: a falsy document (None) and one with an empty `filters` list — neither contributes
-    # anything to write.
-    documents = [None, {'filters': []}]
-
-    # Act
-    result = prediction_metadata.write_prediction_metadata({**metadata, 'documents': documents})
-
-    # Assert
-    assert result is None
-    mongo.insert.assert_not_called()
-
-
-def test_write_prediction_metadata_not_configured_returns_none():
-    # Arrange
-    activity = PredictionMetadata(
-        mongo_repository=None,
-        logger=MagicMock(),
-        notification_handler=MagicMock(),
-        metrics_controller=MagicMock(spec=MetricsController),
-    )
-    activity.error = MagicMock()
-    document = {'filters': [{'name': 'EMPTY_DATA', 'policy': 'STOP', 'counter': 0}]}
-
-    # Act
-    result = activity.write_prediction_metadata({**metadata, 'documents': [document]})
-
-    # Assert
-    assert result is None
-    activity.error.assert_not_called()
-
-
-def test_write_prediction_metadata_success_generates_id_and_inserts(
-    prediction_metadata, mongo: MagicMock
-):
-    # Arrange
-    document = {'filters': [{'name': 'EMPTY_DATA', 'policy': 'STOP', 'counter': 3}]}
-
-    # Act
-    result = prediction_metadata.write_prediction_metadata({**metadata, 'documents': [document]})
-
-    # Assert: a plain 24-hex-char string id (matches predictions.metadata_id's varchar(24)),
-    # not a BSON ObjectId — `insert(...)` never hands one back, so it's generated client-side.
-    assert result is not None
-    assert len(result) == 24
-    int(result, 16)  # raises ValueError if not hex
-
-    collection, inserted_document, inserted_metadata = mongo.insert.call_args.args
-    assert collection == PredictionMetadata._PREDICTION_METADATA_COLLECTION
-    assert inserted_document == {'filters': document['filters'], '_id': result}
-    assert inserted_metadata == metadata['metadata']
-
-
-def test_write_prediction_metadata_combines_multiple_documents(
-    prediction_metadata, mongo: MagicMock
-):
-    # Arrange: two documents (e.g. from two different sources contributing metadata for the same
-    # prediction cycle) — their `filters` entries are flattened into one combined document.
-    documents = [
-        {'filters': [{'name': 'EMPTY_DATA', 'policy': 'CONTINUE', 'counter': 0}]},
-        {
-            'filters': [
-                {'name': 'SPECIFIC_VARIABLES_NULL_VALUES', 'policy': 'CONTINUE', 'counter': 2}
-            ]
-        },
-    ]
-
-    # Act
-    result = prediction_metadata.write_prediction_metadata({**metadata, 'documents': documents})
-
-    # Assert
-    assert result is not None
-    _, inserted_document, _ = mongo.insert.call_args.args
-    assert inserted_document['filters'] == [
-        {'name': 'EMPTY_DATA', 'policy': 'CONTINUE', 'counter': 0},
-        {'name': 'SPECIFIC_VARIABLES_NULL_VALUES', 'policy': 'CONTINUE', 'counter': 2},
-    ]
-
-
-def test_write_prediction_metadata_insert_failure_swallowed(prediction_metadata, mongo: MagicMock):
-    # Arrange
-    mongo.insert.side_effect = RuntimeError('connection reset')
-    document = {'filters': [{'name': 'EMPTY_DATA', 'policy': 'STOP', 'counter': 0}]}
-
-    # Act
-    result = prediction_metadata.write_prediction_metadata({**metadata, 'documents': [document]})
-
-    # Assert: the prediction write must never be blocked or failed by this
-    assert result is None
-    prediction_metadata.error.assert_called_once()
-
-
-@patch.object(SientiaMonitoring, 'shutdown')
-def test_close_disposes_mongo_repository(mock_shutdown):
-    """``PredictionMetadata.close`` should close the Mongo client and clear the reference."""
-    mongo = MagicMock()
-    activity = PredictionMetadata(
-        mongo_repository=mongo,
-        logger=MagicMock(),
-        notification_handler=MagicMock(),
-        metrics_controller=MagicMock(spec=MetricsController),
-    )
-    activity.close()
-    mongo.close.assert_called_once()
-    assert activity.mongo_repository is None
-    # Other instances collected by GC during the test also hit the patched shutdown.
-    assert mock_shutdown.call_args_list.count(call(activity)) == 1
-
-
-@patch.object(SientiaMonitoring, 'shutdown')
-def test_close_without_mongo_repository(mock_shutdown):
-    """When no Mongo repository is configured, ``close`` only shuts down monitoring."""
-    activity = PredictionMetadata(
-        mongo_repository=None,
-        logger=MagicMock(),
-        notification_handler=MagicMock(),
-        metrics_controller=MagicMock(spec=MetricsController),
-    )
-    activity.close()
-    # Other instances collected by GC during the test also hit the patched shutdown.
-    assert mock_shutdown.call_args_list.count(call(activity)) == 1

tests/laborious/worker/test_worker.py

@@ -16,6 +16,7 @@ def _build_fake_activities():
     inst.export_data_to_postgres = MagicMock()
     inst.load_custom_query = MagicMock()
     inst.calculate_simple_metrics = MagicMock()
+    inst.update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state = MagicMock()
     inst.get_reference_data = MagicMock()
     inst.calculate_drift = MagicMock()
     inst.request_predict = MagicMock()
@@ -188,6 +189,11 @@ async def test_main_success_exit_zero(monkeypatch):
     # Drift and SimpleMetrics load no model code, so every runtime shares the `core` queues.
     assert prepare_calls[1].kwargs['runtime'] == 'core'
     assert prepare_calls[2].kwargs['runtime'] == 'core'
+    # prepare_calls[1] is the SimpleMetrics worker (order: MinimalRetrain, SimpleMetrics, Drift, PredictionsBatch).
+    assert (
+        fake_activities.update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state
+        in prepare_calls[1].kwargs['activities']
+    )
 
 
 @mark.asyncio

tests/laborious/workflows/test_simple_metrics.py

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 from unittest.mock import ANY, AsyncMock, MagicMock, call, patch
 
-from pytest import fixture, mark
+from pytest import fixture, mark, raises
 from sientia_do.temporal.constants import DATETIME_FORMAT_WITH_TZ
 
 from laborious.activities.activities import Activities
@@ -42,12 +42,17 @@ async def test_run(workflow_mock: AsyncMock, simple_metrics: SimpleMetrics):
     target_data = {'data': 'test_target_data'}
     simple_metrics_data = {'metrics': 'test_simple_metrics_data'}
 
-    workflow_mock.execute_activity_method = AsyncMock(side_effect=[target_data, None])
+    workflow_mock.logger = MagicMock()
+    workflow_mock.execute_activity_method = AsyncMock(side_effect=[target_data, None, None])
     workflow_mock.execute_local_activity_method = AsyncMock(return_value=simple_metrics_data)
 
     # Act
     await simple_metrics.run(input_data)
 
+    # Assert - load, export and adaptive state (no thresholds still updates it)
+    assert workflow_mock.execute_activity_method.call_count == 3
+    workflow_mock.logger.warning.assert_not_called()
+
     # Assert - Check load_custom_query call
     # Query format matches psycopg2.sql output (identifiers with double quotes, literals with single quotes)
     expected_query = f"""
@@ -130,13 +135,22 @@ async def test_run_empty_target_data(workflow_mock: AsyncMock, simple_metrics: S
 
     target_data = None
 
+    workflow_mock.logger = MagicMock()
     workflow_mock.execute_activity_method = AsyncMock(return_value=target_data)
+    workflow_mock.execute_local_activity_method = AsyncMock()
 
     # Act
     await simple_metrics.run(input_data)
 
-    # Assert - Should not call calculate_simple_metrics or export
+    # Assert - No calculate or export; load + adaptive state (empty window = healthy run)
-    assert workflow_mock.execute_activity_method.call_count == 1
+    workflow_mock.execute_local_activity_method.assert_not_called()
+    calls = workflow_mock.execute_activity_method.call_args_list
+    assert [c.args[0] for c in calls] == [
+        Activities.load_custom_query,
+        Activities.update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state,
+    ]
+    assert calls[1].args[1]['simple_metrics'] == []
+    workflow_mock.logger.warning.assert_not_called()
 
 
 @mark.asyncio
@@ -159,15 +173,22 @@ async def test_run_empty_simple_metrics(workflow_mock: AsyncMock, simple_metrics
     target_data = {'data': 'test_target_data'}
     simple_metrics_data = None
 
+    workflow_mock.logger = MagicMock()
     workflow_mock.execute_activity_method = AsyncMock(return_value=target_data)
     workflow_mock.execute_local_activity_method = AsyncMock(return_value=simple_metrics_data)
 
     # Act
     await simple_metrics.run(input_data)
 
-    # Assert - Should call calculate_simple_metrics but not export
+    # Assert - calculate returns None: no export, adaptive state gets [] (the `or []` is live)
-    workflow_mock.execute_activity_method.assert_called_once()
     workflow_mock.execute_local_activity_method.assert_called_once()
+    calls = workflow_mock.execute_activity_method.call_args_list
+    assert [c.args[0] for c in calls] == [
+        Activities.load_custom_query,
+        Activities.update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state,
+    ]
+    assert calls[1].args[1]['simple_metrics'] == []
+    workflow_mock.logger.warning.assert_not_called()
 
 
 @mark.asyncio
@@ -190,12 +211,17 @@ async def test_run_default_metrics(workflow_mock: AsyncMock, simple_metrics: Sim
     target_data = {'data': 'test_target_data'}
     simple_metrics_data = {'metrics': 'test_simple_metrics_data'}
 
-    workflow_mock.execute_activity_method = AsyncMock(side_effect=[target_data, None])
+    workflow_mock.logger = MagicMock()
+    workflow_mock.execute_activity_method = AsyncMock(side_effect=[target_data, None, None])
     workflow_mock.execute_local_activity_method = AsyncMock(return_value=simple_metrics_data)
 
     # Act
     await simple_metrics.run(input_data)
 
+    # Assert - all three activities ran
+    assert workflow_mock.execute_activity_method.call_count == 3
+    workflow_mock.logger.warning.assert_not_called()
+
     # Assert - Check calculate_simple_metrics call with default metrics
     workflow_mock.execute_activity_method.assert_any_call(
         Activities.load_custom_query,
@@ -245,7 +271,7 @@ _METRICS = [{'metric': 'rmse', 'value': 9.0}]
 @patch('laborious.workflows.simple_metrics.workflow', new_callable=AsyncMock)
 async def test_run_below_min_samples_drops_thresholds(workflow_mock, simple_metrics, n_rows):
     workflow_mock.logger = MagicMock()
-    workflow_mock.execute_activity_method = AsyncMock(side_effect=[[_ROW] * n_rows, None])
+    workflow_mock.execute_activity_method = AsyncMock(side_effect=[[_ROW] * n_rows, None, None])
     workflow_mock.execute_local_activity_method = AsyncMock(return_value=_METRICS)
 
     await simple_metrics.run(
@@ -254,8 +280,8 @@ async def test_run_below_min_samples_drops_thresholds(workflow_mock, simple_metr
 
     activity_input = workflow_mock.execute_local_activity_method.call_args.args[1]
     assert activity_input['thresholds'] is None
-    # Persist, don't alert.
+    # Persist, don't alert: load, export, adaptive state.
-    assert workflow_mock.execute_activity_method.call_count == 2
+    assert workflow_mock.execute_activity_method.call_count == 3
     export_call = workflow_mock.execute_activity_method.call_args_list[1]
     assert export_call.args[0] == Activities.export_data_to_postgres
     assert export_call.args[1]['data'] == _METRICS
@@ -265,7 +291,7 @@ async def test_run_below_min_samples_drops_thresholds(workflow_mock, simple_metr
 @patch('laborious.workflows.simple_metrics.workflow', new_callable=AsyncMock)
 async def test_run_at_min_samples_keeps_thresholds(workflow_mock, simple_metrics):
     workflow_mock.logger = MagicMock()
-    workflow_mock.execute_activity_method = AsyncMock(side_effect=[[_ROW] * 5, None])
+    workflow_mock.execute_activity_method = AsyncMock(side_effect=[[_ROW] * 5, None, None])
     workflow_mock.execute_local_activity_method = AsyncMock(return_value=_METRICS)
 
     await simple_metrics.run(
@@ -274,7 +300,52 @@ async def test_run_at_min_samples_keeps_thresholds(workflow_mock, simple_metrics
 
     activity_input = workflow_mock.execute_local_activity_method.call_args.args[1]
     assert activity_input['thresholds'] == {'rmse_max': 1.0}
-    assert workflow_mock.execute_activity_method.call_count == 2
+    assert workflow_mock.execute_activity_method.call_count == 3
+
+
+_BREACH_ROWS = [{'metric': 'rmse', 'value': 9.0}]
+_THRESHOLDS = {'rmse_max': 1.0}
+
+
+@mark.asyncio
+@patch('laborious.workflows.simple_metrics.workflow', new_callable=AsyncMock)
+async def test_run_updates_adaptive_state_after_export(workflow_mock, simple_metrics):
+    workflow_mock.logger = MagicMock()
+    workflow_mock.execute_activity_method = AsyncMock(
+        side_effect=[[_ROW] * 3, None, {'escalated': True, 'healthy_streak': 0}]
+    )
+    workflow_mock.execute_local_activity_method = AsyncMock(return_value=_BREACH_ROWS)
+
+    await simple_metrics.run(_input(simple_metrics_thresholds=_THRESHOLDS))
+
+    calls = workflow_mock.execute_activity_method.call_args_list
+    assert calls[1].args[0] is Activities.export_data_to_postgres
+    assert calls[2].args[0] is Activities.update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state
+    assert calls[2].args[1] == {
+        **metadata,
+        'simple_metrics': _BREACH_ROWS,
+        'thresholds': _THRESHOLDS,
+        'interval_minutes': 60,
+    }
+
+
+@mark.asyncio
+@patch('laborious.workflows.simple_metrics.workflow', new_callable=AsyncMock)
+async def test_run_without_thresholds_still_updates_adaptive_state(workflow_mock, simple_metrics):
+    # No thresholds = never a breach; still calling lets an escalated doc recover after the
+    # thresholds are removed.
+    workflow_mock.logger = MagicMock()
+    workflow_mock.execute_activity_method = AsyncMock(side_effect=[[_ROW] * 3, None, None])
+    workflow_mock.execute_local_activity_method = AsyncMock(return_value=_BREACH_ROWS)
+
+    await simple_metrics.run(_input())
+
+    calls = workflow_mock.execute_activity_method.call_args_list
+    assert len(calls) == 3
+    assert calls[2].args[0] is Activities.update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state
+    assert calls[2].args[1]['thresholds'] is None
+    assert calls[2].args[1]['simple_metrics'] == _BREACH_ROWS
+    workflow_mock.logger.warning.assert_not_called()
 
 
 @mark.asyncio
@@ -284,7 +355,7 @@ async def test_run_at_min_samples_keeps_thresholds(workflow_mock, simple_metrics
 @patch('laborious.workflows.simple_metrics.workflow', new_callable=AsyncMock)
 async def test_run_guard_off_keeps_thresholds(workflow_mock, simple_metrics, min_samples, warns):
     workflow_mock.logger = MagicMock()
-    workflow_mock.execute_activity_method = AsyncMock(side_effect=[[_ROW] * 2, None])
+    workflow_mock.execute_activity_method = AsyncMock(side_effect=[[_ROW] * 2, None, None])
     workflow_mock.execute_local_activity_method = AsyncMock(return_value=_METRICS)
 
     await simple_metrics.run(
@@ -294,3 +365,54 @@ async def test_run_guard_off_keeps_thresholds(workflow_mock, simple_metrics, min
     activity_input = workflow_mock.execute_local_activity_method.call_args.args[1]
     assert activity_input['thresholds'] == {'rmse_max': 1.0}
     assert workflow_mock.logger.warning.call_count == int(warns)
+
+
+@mark.asyncio
+@patch('laborious.workflows.simple_metrics.workflow', new_callable=AsyncMock)
+async def test_run_empty_window_counts_as_healthy_run(workflow_mock, simple_metrics):
+    workflow_mock.logger = MagicMock()
+    workflow_mock.execute_activity_method = AsyncMock(side_effect=[[], None])
+    workflow_mock.execute_local_activity_method = AsyncMock()
+
+    await simple_metrics.run(_input(simple_metrics_thresholds=_THRESHOLDS))
+
+    workflow_mock.execute_local_activity_method.assert_not_called()
+    calls = workflow_mock.execute_activity_method.call_args_list
+    assert len(calls) == 2  # load + adaptive state, no export
+    assert calls[1].args[0] is Activities.update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state
+    assert calls[1].args[1]['simple_metrics'] == []
+
+
+@mark.asyncio
+@patch('laborious.workflows.simple_metrics.workflow', new_callable=AsyncMock)
+async def test_run_below_min_samples_sends_no_rows_to_adaptive_state(workflow_mock, simple_metrics):
+    workflow_mock.logger = MagicMock()
+    workflow_mock.execute_activity_method = AsyncMock(side_effect=[[_ROW] * 2, None, None])
+    workflow_mock.execute_local_activity_method = AsyncMock(return_value=_BREACH_ROWS)
+
+    await simple_metrics.run(
+        _input(simple_metrics_thresholds=_THRESHOLDS, simple_metrics_min_samples=5)
+    )
+
+    calls = workflow_mock.execute_activity_method.call_args_list
+    assert calls[1].args[0] is Activities.export_data_to_postgres  # metrics still persisted
+    assert calls[2].args[0] is Activities.update_simple_metrics_adaptive_state
+    assert calls[2].args[1]['simple_metrics'] == []  # never a breach
+
+
+@mark.asyncio
+@patch('laborious.workflows.simple_metrics.workflow', new_callable=AsyncMock)
+async def test_run_adaptive_state_failure_fails_workflow(workflow_mock, simple_metrics):
+    workflow_mock.logger = MagicMock()
+    workflow_mock.execute_activity_method = AsyncMock(
+        side_effect=[[_ROW] * 3, None, RuntimeError('dispatch failed')]
+    )
+    workflow_mock.execute_local_activity_method = AsyncMock(return_value=_BREACH_ROWS)
+    input_data = _input(simple_metrics_thresholds=_THRESHOLDS)
+
+    with raises(RuntimeError, match='dispatch failed'):
+        await simple_metrics.run(input_data)
+
+    # Metrics were exported before the failing call
+    calls = workflow_mock.execute_activity_method.call_args_list
+    assert calls[1].args[0] is Activities.export_data_to_postgres